A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack–McKendrick theory from 1927. This is our starting point. We explain the setup of the Kermack–McKendrick theory (passing to a discrete approach) and use medical information for specializing to a model called by us an adapted K-McK-model . It includes effects of vaccination, mass testing and mutants. We demonstrate the use of the model by applying it to the development in Germany and show, among others things, that a comparatively mild intervention reducing the time until quarantine by one day would lead to a drastic improvement.
【저자키워드】 Discrete epidemiological model, Kermack–McKendrick, 【초록키워드】 vaccination, pandemic, quarantine, COVID-19 pandemic, Intervention, Germany, Mild, mutants, information, lead, starting point, among others, black box, setup, show, Effect, approach, include, reducing, explain, drastic, 【제목키워드】 Model, back, Adapted, Discrete,