Recently, two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was used and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from 8 September 2020 to 8 December 2020. Different vaccine roll-out strategies were simulated until 75% of the population was vaccinated, including a no-vaccination scenario. We compete these vaccination strategies with relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were supposed to remain enforced and began to be relaxed on 31 January, 31 March or 1 May 2021. Based on projections from the data and long-term extrapolation of scenarios, relaxing the public health measures implemented by re-opening too early would cause any benefits of vaccination to be lost by increasing case numbers, increasing the effective reproduction number above 1 and thus increasing the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is, instead, delayed and 75% of the Ontarian population gets vaccinated by the end of the year, re-opening can occur with very little risk. Relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions by re-opening and vaccine deployment is a careful balancing act. Our combination of model projections from data and simulation of different strategies and scenarios, can equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with projections concerning the COVID-19 epidemiological trend, helping them in the decision-making process.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19 pandemic, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Mathematical modelling, Canada, Ontario, vaccine and immunization campaign, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus disease, public health, Vaccine, vaccination, risk, Intervention, immunization, Outbreaks, Measures, Reproduction number, epidemiological, Combination, local public health, Vaccination strategy, public health measure, COVID-19 case, cumulative, helping, effective, benefit, was used, occur, concerning, 【제목키워드】 vaccination, Intervention,