Abstract Background Declared as pandemic by WHO, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pneumonia has brought great damage to human health. The uncontrollable spread and poor progression of COVID‐19 have attracted much attention from all over the world. We designed this study to develop a prognostic nomogram incorporating Prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in COVID‐19 patients. Methods Patients confirmed with COVID‐19 and treated in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January to February 2020 were included in this study. We used logistic regression analysis to find risk factors of mortality in these patients. A prognostic nomogram was constructed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of PNI and this prognostic model. Results Comparison of baseline characteristics showed non‐survivors had higher age ( P < .001), male ratio ( P = .038), neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ( P < .001), platelet‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (PLR) ( P < .001), and PNI ( P < .001) than survivors. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent risk factors of mortality in COVID‐19 patients included white blood cell (WBC) (OR 1.285, P = .039), PNI (OR 0.790, P = .029), LDH (OR 1.011, P < .015). These three factors were combined to build the prognostic model. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of only PNI and the prognostic model was 0.849 (95%Cl 0.811‐0.888) and 0.950 (95%Cl 0.922‐0.978), respectively. And calibration plot showed good stability of the prognostic model. Conclusion This research indicates PNI is independently associated with the mortality of COVID‐19 patients. Prognostic model incorporating PNI is beneficial for clinicians to evaluate progression and strengthen monitoring for COVID‐19 patients. AUC value of PNI for predicting morality of COVD‐19 patients is 0.849 (0.811‐0.888). While AUC value of the prognostic model composed of WBC, PNI and LDH for predicting mortality is 0.950 (0.922‐0.978). Prognostic nomogram for predicting mortality of COVID‐19 patients.Calibration plot of the prognostic model for predicting mortality of COVID‐19 patients.
【저자키워드】 COVID‐19, Prognosis, Prognostic nutritional index, marker, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, pandemic, Mortality, Pneumonia, LDH, progression, risk factor, COVID‐19, Spread, Health, stability, Survivors, ROC, White blood cell, Wuhan, male, Research, Patient, age, WHO, WBC, prognostic, university, patients, NLR, Analysis, ROC Curve, AUC, Predictive, prognostic model, Factor, Logistic regression analysis, clinician, baseline characteristics, COVID‐19 patients, multivariate logistic regression, Renmin Hospital, independent risk factor, receiver operating characteristics, AUC value, while, Result, develop, evaluate, composed, treated, indicate, Area, build, COVID‐19 patient, 【제목키워드】 Mortality, index, Wuhan, China, COVID‐19 patient,