Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban-rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
【초록키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus, variant, Infection, Intervention, Local, Transmission, severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus, variants, Policy, Spread, Viral, mathematical model, Kenya, Viral transmission, School, respiratory, Critical, epidemic waves, COVID-19 epidemic, Contact, a minor, determinant, acute respiratory syndrome, acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, minor, reopening, phenotypic, National, subpopulations, susceptible, increase in, groups, explain, mathematical, lifted, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19 transmission, epidemic wave,