We propose a mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. Our model describes the multiple transmission pathways in the infection dynamics, and emphasizes the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission and spread of this disease. Our model also employs non-constant transmission rates which change with the epidemiological status and environmental conditions and which reflect the impact of the on-going disease control measures. We conduct a detailed analysis of this model, and demonstrate its application using publicly reported data. Among other findings, our analytical and numerical results indicate that the coronavirus infection would remain endemic, which necessitates long-term disease prevention and intervention programs.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, basic reproduction number, compartmental modeling, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, Coronavirus infection, Infection, Intervention, Transmission, Spread, Measures, outbreak, epidemiological, disease, Endemic, Analysis, transmission rate, transmission pathway, Wuhan, China, reported, mathematical, environmental condition, 【제목키워드】 Novel coronavirus, Epidemic, Wuhan, China, mathematical,