The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.
All Keywords
【초록키워드】 COVID-19, lockdown, COVID-19 pandemic, Infection, Spread, China, Travel, expansion, detection rate, Analysis, Efficiency, new infections, growth, measure, SEIR, Effect, effective, reveal, reduction in, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, Control, effective, Significance,
【초록키워드】 COVID-19, lockdown, COVID-19 pandemic, Infection, Spread, China, Travel, expansion, detection rate, Analysis, Efficiency, new infections, growth, measure, SEIR, Effect, effective, reveal, reduction in, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, Control, effective, Significance,
COVID-19 대유행은 장기적인 해결책을 요구하는 장기 위기가 되었습니다. 우리는 증강 SEIR 시뮬레이션 모델을 실시간 인간 이동성 데이터와 결합하여 다양한 시간대에 걸쳐 중국에서 COVID-19 확산을 축소하기 위한 잠금, 여행 금지 및 효과적인 테스트 조치의 효과를 분해했습니다. 우리의 분석에 따르면 검사 효율성의 확대 덕분에 감염 사례의 감지율이 크게 증가한 것이 3월 중순까지 새로운 감염 감소를 설명하는 데 도시 폐쇄만큼 효과적이었습니다. 그러나 분석을 7월로 확장함에 따라 탐지율을 최소 50%로 높이는 것이 확산을 통제할 수 있는 유일한 신뢰할 수 있는 방법입니다.