Objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to evaluate whether technical analysis (TA) indicators, commonly used in the financial market to spot security price trend reversals, might be proficiently used also to anticipate a possible increase of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Methods: Analysis was performed on datasets from Italy, Iran, and Brazil. TA indicators tested were: (1) the combined use of a faster (3-d) and a slower (20-d) simple moving averages (SMA), (2) the moving average converge/divergence (MACD), and (3) the divergence in the direction of the number of new daily cases trend and the corresponding MACD histogram. Results: We found that the use of both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided a reliable signal of trend inversion of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Results were consistent for all the 3 countries considered. The trend reversals signaled by the indicators were always followed by a sustained trend persistence until a new signal of reversal appeared. Conclusions: TA indicators tested here proved to be reliable tools to identify in the short mid-term a subsequent change of direction of viral spread trend either downward, upward, or sideward.
【저자키워드】 immunization, Internet, medical records, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, Brazil, SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus disease 2019, coronavirus, pandemic, Italy, viral spread, Spread, Iran, persistence, dataset, Analysis, health emergency, acute respiratory syndrome, average, inversion, combined use, country, Result, tested, identify, evaluate, caused, subsequent, provided, was performed, faster, sustained, 【제목키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, trend, Indicator,