An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
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【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus disease 2019, intensive care unit, Surveillance, mathematical model, Reproduction number, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus disease, Critical care, lockdown, database, Epidemic, United Kingdom, Admission, growth, National, cumulative, median, determine, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus disease, Critical care, Spread, United Kingdom, Admissions,
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus disease 2019, intensive care unit, Surveillance, mathematical model, Reproduction number, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus disease, Critical care, lockdown, database, Epidemic, United Kingdom, Admission, growth, National, cumulative, median, determine, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus disease, Critical care, Spread, United Kingdom, Admissions,