Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), is now sweeping across the world. A substantial proportion of infections only lead to mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, but the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic infections remains unknown. In this paper, we proposed a model to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, using COVID-19 in Henan Province, China, as an example. Methods: We extended the conventional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model by including asymptomatic, unconfirmed symptomatic, and quarantined cases. Based on this model, we used daily reported COVID-19 cases from January 21 to February 26, 2020, in Henan Province to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, as well as the change of effective reproductive number, R t . Results: The proportion of asymptomatic cases among COVID-19 infected individuals was 42% and the infectivity was 10% that of symptomatic ones. The basic reproductive number R 0 = 2.73, and R t dropped below 1 on January 31 under a series of measures. Conclusion: The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic was rapid in the early stage, with a large number of asymptomatic infected individuals having relatively low infectivity. However, it was quickly brought under control with national measures.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, Asymptomatic cases, Prevention and control measures, infectious dynamic model, the effective reproductive number, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, coronavirus, Infection, Spread, China, Measures, Asymptomatic, symptomatic, asymptomatic infection, Asymptomatic case, novel, early stage, COVID-19 epidemic, basic reproductive number, acute respiratory syndrome, Mild symptom, COVID-19 case, infected individual, National, effective, caused, example, proportion, reported, reproductive, COVID-19 infected individual, dropped, 【제목키워드】 China,