Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus, pandemic, temperature, Humidity, 【초록키워드】 Variation, Local, Transmission, Surveillance, trajectory, incidence, association, COVID-19 cases, seasonal variation, COVID-19 incidence, COVID-19 case, average, divisions, Effect, regions, tropical, spread of COVID-19, reported, explained, suggested, reduce, statistically significant, with COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 Lower,