Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) trends of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the major endemic areas of China. Methods: The provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic areas. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The R 0 of COVID-19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19. The latent class of R 0 was analyzed using the latent profile analysis (LPA) model. Results: The median R 0 calculated from the SARS and COVID-19 parameters were 1.84–3.18 and 1.74–2.91, respectively. The R 0 calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that calculated from the COVID-19 parameters ( Z = −4.782 to −4.623, p < 0.01). Both R 0 can be divided into three latent classes. The initial value of R 0 in class 1 (Shandong Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing Municipality) was relatively low and decreased slowly. The initial value of R 0 in class 2 (Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, and Jiangsu Province) was relatively high and decreased rapidly. Moreover, the initial R 0 value of class 3 (Hubei Province) was in the range between that of classes 1 and 2, but the higher R 0 level lasted longer and decreased slowly. Conclusion: The results indicated that the overall R 0 trend is decreased with the strengthening of comprehensive prevention and control measures of China for COVID-19, however, there are regional differences.
【저자키워드】 2019 novel coronavirus disease, Epidemiology, basic reproduction number, trends, latent categories, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, China, 2019 novel coronavirus, disease, Endemic, acute respiratory syndrome, growth, confirmed cases, measure, latent profile analysis, cumulative, municipality, Guangdong, Zhejiang, parameter, Chongqing, initial, Jiangsu, endemic area, greater, selected, analyzed, was used, reported, indicated, median, calculated, LPA, latent class, 【제목키워드】 novel, Major, number, profile, reproduction, basic, Area, Latent,