Abstract
Objectives: While almost 60% of the world has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, the global distribution of vaccination has not been equitable. Only 4% of the population of low-income countries (LICs) has received a full primary vaccine series, compared with over 70% of the population of high-income nations.
Design: We used economic and epidemiological models, parameterised with public data on global vaccination and COVID-19 deaths, to estimate the potential benefits of scaling up vaccination programmes in LICs and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2022 in the context of global spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV2.
Setting: Low-income and lower-middle-income nations.
Main outcome measures: Outcomes were expressed as number of avertable deaths through vaccination, costs of scale-up and cost per death averted. We conducted sensitivity analyses over a wide range of parameter estimates to account for uncertainty around key inputs.
Findings: Globally, universal vaccination in LIC/LMIC with three doses of an mRNA vaccine would result in an estimated 1.5 million COVID-19 deaths averted with a total estimated cost of US$61 billion and an estimated cost-per-COVID-19 death averted of US$40 800 (sensitivity analysis range: US$7400-US$81 500). Lower estimated infection fatality ratios, higher cost-per-dose and lower vaccine effectiveness or uptake lead to higher cost-per-death averted estimates in the analysis.
Conclusions: Scaling up COVID-19 global vaccination would avert millions of COVID-19 deaths and represents a reasonable investment in the context of the value of a statistical life. Given the magnitude of expected mortality facing LIC/LMIC without vaccination, this effort should be an urgent priority.
Keywords: COVID-19; HEALTH ECONOMICS; Public health.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, health economics, public health., 【초록키워드】 Vaccine, SARS-CoV2, COVID-19 vaccine, vaccination, mRNA vaccine, variant, Infection, outcome, omicron, Spread, Health, Effectiveness, death, sensitivity analysis, epidemiological, estimate, distribution, fatality, Analysis, dose, deaths, Scaling, expected mortality, effort, Lower, while, parameter, Public, country, statistical, conducted, potential benefit, magnitude, were expressed, sensitivity analysis, 【제목키워드】 variant, omicron, COVID-19 vaccination, mRNA, death, country,