Few studies have assessed incubation periods of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Delta variant. This study aimed to elucidate the transmission dynamics, especially the incubation period, for the Delta variant compared with non-Delta strains. We studied unvaccinated coronavirus disease 2019 patients with definite single exposure date from August 2020 to September 2021 in Japan. The incubation periods were calculated and compared by Mann–Whitney U test for Delta (with L452R mutation) and non-Delta cases. We estimated mean and percentiles of incubation period by fitting parametric distribution to data in the Bayesian statistical framework. We enrolled 214 patients (121 Delta and 103 non-Delta cases) with one specific date of exposure to the virus. The mean incubation period was 3.7 days and 4.9 days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively ( p -value = 0.000). When lognormal distributions were fitted, the estimated mean incubation periods were 3.7 (95% credible interval (CI) 3.4–4.0) and 5.0 (95% CI 4.5–5.6) days for Delta and non-Delta cases, respectively. The estimated 97.5th percentile of incubation period was 6.9 (95% CI 5.9–8.0) days and 10.4 (95% CI 8.6–12.7) days for Delta and non–Delta cases, respectively. Unvaccinated Delta variant cases had shorter incubation periods than non–Delta variant cases.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, delta variant, Incubation period, Serial interval, Japan, transmission time relative to symptom onset, unvaccinated, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, Coronavirus disease 2019, coronavirus, Mutation, Bayesian, variant, Delta, severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus, delta variant, virus, L452R, Patient, Incubation period, Transmission dynamics, Japan, respiratory, distribution, Strains, exposure to, credible interval, acute respiratory syndrome, 95% CI, acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, P -value, statistical framework, Mann–Whitney U test, mean incubation period, enrolled, calculated, 【제목키워드】 Delta, Incubation, Period,