Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.
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【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, social distancing, modelling, variants, B.1.1.7, curfew, 【초록키워드】 vaccination, social distancing, Genomic surveillance, Transmission, progression, Spread, B.1.1.7 variant, Surveillance, mathematical model, B.1.1.7, France, genomic, hospitalisation, strain, School holidays, hospitalisations, measure, plateau, increase in, expected, mathematical, calibrated, School holiday, the SARS-CoV-2, 【제목키워드】 Impact, circulation, measure, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7,
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, social distancing, modelling, variants, B.1.1.7, curfew, 【초록키워드】 vaccination, social distancing, Genomic surveillance, Transmission, progression, Spread, B.1.1.7 variant, Surveillance, mathematical model, B.1.1.7, France, genomic, hospitalisation, strain, School holidays, hospitalisations, measure, plateau, increase in, expected, mathematical, calibrated, School holiday, the SARS-CoV-2, 【제목키워드】 Impact, circulation, measure, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7,
SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 변종의 확산에 따라 2021년 1월 프랑스에서 사회적 거리두기가 강화되었습니다. 게놈 감시에 대해 보정된 2계통 수학적 모델을 사용하여 우리는 통행금지 조치가 B.1.1.7이 계속 성장하는 동안 역사적인 균주의 전송. 방학은 2월에 진행 속도를 더 늦추는 것으로 보입니다. 사회적 거리두기가 점진적으로 강화되지 않으면 예방 접종 리듬의 증가가 예상됨에도 불구하고 급격한 입원 급증이 예상됩니다.