The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19530 Published on 2020-07-212022-10-29 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of [Category] COVID-19, SARS, [키워드] absence antiviral therapies branching process Compartmental models coronavirus disease Course COVID-19 Epidemic highlight Impact pandemic provide Public health intervention Significance social distancing spread of COVID-19 utility Vaccine [DOI] 10.1073/pnas.2006520117 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] 530
Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside ChinaResearch Article Published on 2020-07-102022-10-28 Journal: Wellcome Open Research [Category] COVID-19, [키워드] affected applied assumed basic reproduction number benefit branching process caused China Consensus contribute country COVID-19 COVID-19 transmission distribution effective effort Epidemic fraction highlight human-to-human transmission individual infected individual Intervention joint Local mathematical median Novel coronavirus novel coronavirus disease offspring organization outbreak overdispersion parameter k quantified reduced Reproduction number SARS-CoV-2 secondary transmission spread to suggested superspreading superspreading events sustained Transmission Variation while [DOI] 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.3 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research Article
Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimationResearch Article Published on 2020-07-012022-10-28 Journal: PLoS Computational Biology [Category] Coronavirus, SARS, [키워드] Abstract accumulated Accuracy applied approach branching process change changes changes in characterising Course COVID-19 pandemic declining detect develop disease distribution Ebola effective Efficacy Epidemic Epidemics Epidemiology estimate estimates Evolution example facilitate fluctuation fluctuations genetics growth highlight humans indicate infected individual Infectious disease information mathematical Outbreaks phylogenetics plants Precision predict problem prognostic provide Public Health Agency quarantine real time reliability Reproduction number Research Significant statistically statistically significant supported Transmission understanding vaccination while Zika virus [DOI] 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007990 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research Article
Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, March 2020Research Article Published on 2020-06-032022-10-28 Journal: BMC Medicine [Category] COVID-19, SARS, [키워드] 95% CI Analysis branching process case sery China Cluster Cluster distribution Clusters COVID-19 COVID-19 epidemic declining disease distribution effective effort example growth heterogeneity highlight incidence Intervention Local MONITOR provide real time Reporting delay Reproduction number Result SARS-CoV-2 significant effect Singapore social distancing symptoms onset trajectory Transmission Transmission heterogeneity transmission potential unique Wilcoxon test [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-020-01615-9 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research Article
Evaluating Transmission Heterogeneity and Super-Spreading Event of COVID-19 in a Metropolis of ChinaArticle Published on 2020-05-242022-10-29 Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research an [Category] COVID-19, MERS, SARS, [키워드] addition average binomial offspring branching process caused Characteristics China collected COVID-19 distribution effort Epidemics Evaluating event Factors Government heterogeneity heterogeneous individual infect infected case Infection information Intervention Local mass infection measure metropolis outbreak parameter k Population reproductive secondary cases super spreading sustained Tianjin Transmission Transmission heterogeneity Transmission model understanding [DOI] 10.3390/ijerph17103705 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Article
Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside ChinaArticle Published on 2020-02-192022-10-30 Journal: Journal of Clinical Medicine [Category] COVID-19, [키워드] America Asia assessment baseline benefit branching process China Combination compartmental model country COVID-19 cumulative Efficacy Europe Evolution expressed frequencies group interventions investigated Local measure novel Novel coronavirus outbreak parameter parameters reduce reduction in Reproduction number risk Risk assessment selected Transmission Travel [DOI] 10.3390/jcm9020571 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Article
Modelling high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the commercial poultry industryArticle Published on 2019-04-012023-06-02 Journal: Theoretical Population Biology [Category] 조류인플루엔자, [키워드] Avian Influenza branching process commercial poultry Population structure stochastic models virus mutation [DOI] 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.02.004
Vector control with driving Y chromosomes: modelling the evolution of resistanceY 염색체를 이용한 벡터 제어: 저항성 진화 모델링Research Published on 2017-07-142024-08-12 Journal: Malaria Journal [Category] 말라리아, [키워드] Anopheles gambiae branching process Driving Y chromosome gene drive malaria resistance vector control [DOI] 10.1186/s12936-017-1932-7 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research
Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative studyResearch Article Published on 2015-09-032022-10-28 Journal: BMC Medicine [Category] Coronavirus, MERS, [키워드] acute respiratory syndrome amplification Arabian Peninsula branching process Care carried caused changes in Characteristics characterized Cluster Clusters Concentration coronavirus Coronaviruses described difference disease distribution exposure Exposure pattern FIVE fraction greater Head-to-head comparison healthcare healthcare worker heterogeneity hospital Hospital transmission human-to-human transmission incidence index case information Jeddah Korean Kruskal–Wallis majority mechanism MERS MERS case Middle East nosocomial nosocomial outbreak occurred Occurrence outbreak Outbreaks Patient Probability progression reported Reproduction number Result SARS Saudi Arabia secondary case secondary infections significantly higher Simulation South South Korea subsequent super-spreading event super-spreading events supplementary material syndrome Transmission Transmission dynamics transmission pattern transmission potential [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-015-0450-0 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research Article
Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited OutbreaksResearch Article Published on 2014-10-302022-10-29 Journal: PLoS Pathogens [Category] Coronavirus, MERS, [키워드] Affect amplify Analysis applied approach branching process can be used Canada changes in Clusters Contact contact tracing procedures Coverage cross-protective declined decrease detect disease distribution effective Effectiveness epidemiological Europe evaluate Evidence example facilitate Factor heterogeneity Human human-to-human transmission humans identify indicate individuals Infection infection source Infectious disease MERS-CoV MERS-CoV transmission Middle East National North America occur provide public health quantitative assessment Reproduction number respiratory respiratory syndrome coronavirus respond risk secondary cases significant difference statistical statistically significant Surveillance the timing the United State Transmissibility Transmission transmitted vaccination Variation variety [DOI] 10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research Article